Updated: 2022-05-31 05:17:37
Human activities are driving climate change. And the impacts are being felt throughout the world — and in spite of or because of climate activists are organizing around the issue.
Observed CO2 concentrations (black) have been steadily increasing since we have begun measuring them in the 1950s, with a best fit line (red). Note that the slope or the rate of change is also increasing.
We ofen hear about the globe’s rising temperatures without learning much about how weather records in our own region might be contriubuting to these climate change patterns.
In most cases, a station in a state supports the overall global pattern, but in some we see patterns that are ambiguous or even contractory.
For this project, I downloaded the longest and most complete record for each state and developed a standard set of analysis procedures and share them below.
I have also been working to create short videos that will be shared on various forms of social media.
For additional description of the project methods and R code, see (Weather Station Records and Communicating Climate Change)
One of the most important parts of science is critical thinking, which begins with trying to root out logical falacies. One that comes up alot is the falacy that ``correlation is causation’’. In our case, many of the analysis included here are changes over time. Time in and of itself isn’t the cause of temperature or precipitation changes. Thus, we need to keep in mind, climate changes are due to complex dynanmics in the Earth System, which include natural and anthropocentric drivers.
In many cases, I will report the probability associated with correlations. However, these statistics obscure one of the hardest concepts in statistics: we test the null hypothesis, which might be “no change”. Thus, if the chances are low (< 5% change or 0.05 as a probability), we reject the null hypothesis and accept the altnernative, which in this case is “change”. Frankly, statistics is a bit like walking in a door backwards. You stil get in, but the path is less straightforward.
On this page, I create crude normal probability distributions for each 20 years of records using the mean and standard deviation to “visualize” the change. Most of the data do not meet the assumptions that the data are normally distributed, so we need to see these images as approximations and not a definitive analysis.
Sometimes it’s a bit easier to see how these patterns develop over time and relative to what we think of as “pre-industrial” concentrations, which forms a base-line.
Although an animated figured can serve to show changes, it can also be distracting or hard to follow. For example, below I have a pretty straight forward image demonstrating the CO2 changes in Mauna Loa. I think this works pretty well, but I suspect not everyone would agree.
Observed CO2 concentrations (black) have been steadily increasing since we have begun measuring them in late 1950s, with a loess line (red). Note that the slope or the rate of change is also increasing.
One take home lesson that is critical is that the patterns of the past may not lead to useful predictions into the future. A site that has not shown evidence of climate change in the past might stay the same or reach a tipping point where we might detect dramatic changes. We often rely on modeling the climate system to make predictions, which is well beyond my project here.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00068138)
Connecticut)’s record is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00079605)
Delaware’s record is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00098740)
Georgia’s temperature changes do not seem to follow the expected warming trends. In fact, this figure suggests that some cooling has occurred. As noted throughout this text, we need to be sure 1) that the records is accurate and 2) to contextulize the changes at this location with others in the region. When we found consistent data between stations in a region, we might be in a better position to determine the overall patterns. Finally, we need to better understand the dynamics of weather in the region to see if we can have a more rubost understanding of climate change.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00186350)
District of Columbia’s record is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:NEWPORT, AR US (ID:GHCND:USC00035186))
Arkansas’s climate is extremely disturbing, where Tombstone’s data point to a recent rapid change in temperatures.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Wisconson 2022’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00054770)
Colorado’s climate is extremely disturbing, where Tombstone’s data point to a recent rapid change in temperatures.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas 2022’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas 2022’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
(Alabama)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Florida’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Texas’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Arizona’s climate is extremely disturbing, where Tombstone’s data point to a recent rapid change in temperatures.
Station Location Map (Station ID:PORTHILL, ID US (ID:GHCND:USC00107264))
Idaho’s record indicates dramatic warming the last century. While the state has relatively mild summer temperatures, these changes have important implications for forest fires which are highly senstive to heat.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Nevada’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Utah’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USW00023271)
California’s temperatures are changing dramatically and radically! The Sacramento station’s temperatures are rising fast that will impact water supplies and agriculture productivity.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00018024)
Kansas (2022)’s recorid is ambigous and possibly even contradictory and demonstrates the counter intuitive results at one location.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USW00026617)
Alaska demonstrates one of the patterns observed by climate scientists: The poles experience more warming than many other parts of the world.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
Station Location Map (Station ID:USC00516588)
Hawaii demonstrates one of the patterns observed by climate scientists: The poles experience more warming than many other parts of the world.
Temperature and Precipitation distribution by 20-year periods. Overlap between curves demonstrates high variability. When red line is to the right of the blue line it suggests warming. NOTE: This is a crude analysis, see link for more information.
